It's that time again. As the celebrities (and rainclouds) gather over in Los Angeles, I'm having my annual shot at predicting the Oscar winners.
A quick explanation is in order. This isn't who I think should win. This is who I think will win, bearing in mind the track record of the Academy and the type of film they go for. For example - I'm not expecting 12 Years A Slave to do as well as it did at last night's Spirit Awards. Don't get me wrong; it's a great film (for me, right up there tied with Wolf Of Wall Street and Captain Phillips as the year's best) but I really can't see it being embraced by the Academy voters.
More often than not, they play it safe. They chose Dances With Wolves over Goodfellas. Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction. Argo over Zero Dark Thirty. I'm expecting the tradition to continue tonight. Gravity is a spectacular film - tense, exciting, wonderfully constructed - but I don't think it ranks as the best film of last year. No matter - I still think the Academy will give it the main prize.
Anyway - to business. Here are my predictions in the key categories:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
12 Years a Slave
Best Visual Effects
I'll check back in tomorrow and let you know how I got on...